Replication Data for: Fatality Thresholds, Causal Heterogeneity, and Civil War Research: Reconsidering the Link Between Narcotics and Conflict

Determining the appropriate casualty threshold criteria for case selection in the civil war literature has proven contentious. Yet despite continued debate, our survey of the literature finds that scholars rarely examine their findings across multiple thresholds. Of those that did evaluate their findings in this way, nearly half found that their results changed at different thresholds. Because minor and major conflicts often exhibit different causal patterns, scholars should explore their empirical findings across a range of theoretically-motivated thresholds. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we demonstrate that the relationship between narcotics and conflict intensity varies across thresholds. We then introduce a dynamic theory that emphasizes the endogeneity of rebel groups' decisions to turn to drug cultivation during civil war.在内战研究文献中，确定用于案例选取的合理伤亡阈值标准，历来颇具争议。尽管学界对此仍在持续争论，但我们的文献综述研究发现，学者们极少会跨多个阈值对其研究发现进行检验。在确实采用该方式检验研究发现的学者中，近半数发现，其研究结果会随阈值不同而发生变化。由于小规模与大规模冲突往往呈现出不同的因果模式，学者们应当基于一系列由理论驱动的阈值，对其实证研究发现展开探索。为阐明该研究路径的实用性，我们验证了毒品与冲突烈度之间的关联会随阈值不同而发生变化。随后我们提出了一项动态理论，该理论着重强调了内战期间反叛团体选择转向毒品种植这一决策的内生性。