The changing environment of conservation conflict: geese and farming in Scotland

1.Conflict between conservation objectives and human livelihoods is ubiquitous and can be highly damaging, but the processes generating it are poorly understood. Ecological elements are central to conservation conflict, and changes in their dynamics – for instance due to anthropogenic environmental change – are likely to influence the emergence of serious human-wildlife impacts and, consequently, social conflict. 2.We used mixed-effects models to examine the drivers of historic spatio-temporal dynamics in numbers of Greenland barnacle geese (Branta leucopsis) on the Scottish island of Islay to identify the ecological processes that have shaped the environment in which conflict between goose conservation and agriculture has been triggered. 3.Barnacle goose numbers on Islay increased from 20,000 to 43,000 between 1987 and 2016. Over the same period, the area of improved grassland increased, the number of sheep decreased and the climate warmed. 4.Goose population growth was strong...1. 保护目标与人类生计之间的冲突无处不在且危害性极强，但其背后的形成机制却尚未得到充分解析。生态要素是保护冲突的核心组成部分，而其动态变化——例如由人为环境变化所引发的改变——极有可能催生严重的人类-野生动物冲突事件，并进而引发社会层面的冲突。 2. 本研究采用混合效应模型（mixed-effects models），针对苏格兰艾莱岛上的格陵兰白颊黑雁（Greenland barnacle geese，学名*Branta leucopsis*）种群数量的历史时空动态驱动因子进行剖析，旨在明确塑造了雁类保护与农业冲突发生环境的生态过程。 3. 1987年至2016年间，艾莱岛的格陵兰白颊黑雁种群数量从20000只增长至43000只。同期，改良草地面积持续扩大，绵羊存栏量逐步下降，区域气候亦呈现变暖趋势。 4. 该雁类种群的增长态势极为显著……