The COVID-crisis as an opportunity for welfare recalibration? Panel-data evidence on the effect of the COVID-crisis on welfare preferences in Spain, Germany, and Sweden

The reform capacity of welfare states to adapt to the needs of post-industrial labour markets has been a key question of the welfare literature for the last two decades. In a context of austerity, such adaptations (retrenchment or recalibration) are notoriously difficult because of extremely high levels of support for existing policies, particularly old age pensions. We investigate how the recent economic shock caused by the COVID-pandemic has changed social policy preferences in three West European countries (Germany, Sweden, Spain). Relying on original panel data observing the relative support for social policies before and during the crisis, we show that support for old age pensions has dropped substantially relative to other social policies. This drop can be observed in all three countries and among all ideological and age groups. The drop is strongest among current and soon-to-be pensioners who in turn increased support for benefits to the working-age population. At the expense of pensions, the economic shock has especially boosted support for active labour market policies and (in Germany) childcare services. This shift of support from pensions to social investment policies might have opened up a window of opportunity for recalibrating welfare reforms.近二十年来，福利国家适应后工业化劳动力市场需求的改革能力，始终是福利研究领域的核心议题。在紧缩政策背景下，这类改革（政策紧缩或调整）因民众对既有社会政策——尤其是老年养老金——的极高支持度而众所周知难以推进。本研究聚焦新冠疫情引发的本轮经济冲击，如何改变了德国、瑞典、西班牙这三个西欧国家的社会政策偏好。依托危机前后针对社会政策相对支持度的原创面板数据，本研究发现：相较于其他社会政策，民众对老年养老金的支持率出现了显著下滑。这一下滑趋势在三个样本国家、所有意识形态阵营与年龄群体中均有体现。其中，当前已领取养老金者与即将领取养老金者的支持率下滑最为显著，与此同时，这一群体对劳动年龄人口福利的支持率有所提升。以养老金为代价，本轮经济冲击显著推高了民众对积极劳动力市场政策的支持率，在德国还包括对儿童看护服务的支持。这种从养老金向社会投资型政策的支持倾向转移，或许为调整福利改革打开了重要的机遇窗口。