Data from: Using a full annual cycle model to evaluate long-term population viability of the conservation-reliant Kirtland’s warbler after successful recovery

1. Long-term management planning for conservation-reliant migratory songbirds is particularly challenging because habitat quality in different stages and geographic locations of the annual cycle can have direct and carry-over effects that influence population dynamics. The Neotropical migratory songbird Kirtland's warbler Setophaga kirtlandii (Baird 1852) is listed as endangered under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and Near Threatened under the IUCN Red List. This conservation-reliant species is being considered for U.S. federal delisting because the species has surpassed the designated 1000 breeding pairs recovery threshold since 2001. 2. To help inform the delisting decision and long-term management efforts, we developed a population simulation model for the Kirtland's warbler that incorporated both breeding and wintering grounds habitat dynamics, and projected population viability based on current environmental conditions and potential future management scenarios. Future management scenarios included continuation of current management conditions, reduced productivity and carrying capacity due to changes in habitat suitability from the creation of experimental jack pine Pinus banksiana (Lamb.) plantations, and reduced productivity from alteration of the brown-headed cowbird Molothrus ater (Boddaert 1783) removal program. 3. Linking wintering grounds precipitation to productivity improved the accuracy of the model for replicating past observed population dynamics. Our future simulations indicate the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under two potential future management scenarios: 1) continuation of current management practices, and 2) spatially restricting cowbird removal to the core breeding area, assuming cowbirds reduce productivity in the remaining patches by ≤ 41%. The additional future management scenarios we assessed resulted in population declines. 4. Synthesis and applications. Our study indicates the Kirtland's warbler population is stable under current management conditions, and that the jack pine plantation and cowbird removal programs continue to be necessary for the long-term persistence of the species. This study represents one of the first attempts to incorporate full annual cycle dynamics into a population viability analysis for a migratory bird, and our results indicate that incorporating wintering grounds dynamics improved model performance.1. 针对依赖保护的迁徙鸣禽开展长期管理规划极具挑战性，因为年度生活周期不同阶段及不同地理区域的栖息地质量，可通过直接效应与遗留效应（carry-over effects）影响种群动态。新热带迁徙鸣禽柯氏林莺（Kirtland's warbler, *Setophaga kirtlandii* (Baird 1852)）被列入《美国濒危物种法》（U.S. Endangered Species Act）的濒危物种名录，同时在世界自然保护联盟红色名录（IUCN Red List）中被评为近危（Near Threatened）。由于该物种自2001年起已超过既定的1000对繁殖个体恢复阈值，美国联邦层面正考虑将其从濒危名录中除名。 2. 为协助除名决策与长期管理工作制定依据，我们构建了柯氏林莺的种群模拟模型，该模型整合了繁殖地与越冬地的栖息地动态，并基于当前环境条件与潜在未来管理情景开展种群可行性预测。本次评估的未来管理情景包括：延续当前管理模式；因实验性北美短叶松（jack pine, *Pinus banksiana* (Lamb.)）人工林营造导致栖息地适宜性变化，进而引发繁殖成功率与环境容纳量下降；以及因棕头牛鹂（brown-headed cowbird, *Molothrus ater* (Boddaert 1783)）移除计划调整导致的繁殖成功率降低。 3. 将越冬地降水与繁殖成功率相关联，提升了模型复刻历史观测种群动态的精度。未来模拟结果显示，在两种潜在未来管理情景下柯氏林莺种群可保持稳定：1）延续当前管理实践；2）将棕头牛鹂移除工作空间限定在核心繁殖区域，同时假设棕头牛鹂对其余斑块的繁殖成功率降低幅度不超过41%。其余评估的未来管理情景均会导致种群数量下降。 4. 总结与应用。本研究表明，柯氏林莺种群在当前管理条件下可保持稳定，且北美短叶松人工林营造与棕头牛鹂移除计划仍是该物种长期存续的必要保障。本研究是首次将完整年度生活周期动态纳入迁徙鸟类种群生存力分析（population viability analysis, PVA）的尝试之一，研究结果也证实纳入越冬地动态可提升模型性能。