Thresholds and Tipping Points in a Sarracenia Microecosystem at Harvard Forest 2012-2013

The primary goal of this project is to determine experimentally the amount of lead time required to prevent a state change. To achieve this goal, we will (1) experimentally induce state changes in a natural aquatic ecosystem - the Sarracenia microecosystem; (2) use proteomic analysis to identify potential indicators of states and state changes; and (3) test whether we can forestall state changes by experimentally intervening in the system. This work uses state-of-the art molecular tools to identify early warning indicators in the field of aerobic to anaerobic state changes driven by nutrient enrichment in an aquatic ecosystem. The study tests two general hypotheses: (1) proteomic biomarkers can function as reliable indicators of impending state changes and may give early warning before increasing variances and statistical flickering of monitored variables; and (2) well-timed intervention based on proteomic biomarkers can avert future state changes in ecological systems.本项目的核心目标为通过实验测定可阻止生态系统状态转变所需的前置干预时长。为达成该目标，本研究将开展三项工作：(1) 在自然水生生态系统——瓶子草微生态系统（Sarracenia microecosystem）中，通过实验手段诱导状态转变；(2) 采用蛋白质组学分析（proteomic analysis），识别系统状态及状态转变的潜在指示因子；(3) 通过对该系统实施实验性干预，验证是否可预先阻止状态转变。本研究运用当前最先进的分子生物学工具，旨在识别水生生态系统中由营养富集驱动的有氧-厌氧状态转变的早期预警指标。本研究将验证两项一般性假说：(1) 蛋白质组学生物标志物（proteomic biomarkers）可作为即将发生的状态转变的可靠指示物，并能在监测变量的方差增大与统计闪烁出现前发出早期预警；(2) 基于蛋白质组学生物标志物的适时干预，可避免生态系统未来发生状态转变。