Trade, training, employment, and wages: evidence from the U.S. manufacturing industry

Unrestricted In this dissertation, I analyze the effects of trade on the U.S. domestic labor market. I extend the current literature in two dimensions. First, I investigate the effect of import competition on company training within United States manufacturing industries. Second, I extend Freeman and Katz's (1991) and Kletzer's (2002) studies on the employment and wage effects of trade through the year 2001.; My focus on the effects of imports on company training is new to the literature, and it is also important as such training is an important factor in earnings and job security. Specifically, I look at the effect of imports on the incidence of company training for individuals in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Overall, I find that import competition has a negative effect on company training. I also find that imports from low- and middle- income countries have a more severe negative effect on training than do those from high-income countries. However, I do not find a significant difference between the effect of imports in high-technology and low-technology industries. Finally, I find that the final goods imports in an industry have a more negative effect on training than the intermediate goods imports in the industry. Thus it is not surprising there is pressure to limit import competition, especially from low- or middle- income countries, since reduced training opportunities for U.S. workers can be perceived as reducing "good jobs."; My research on company training suggests that nonproduction workers bear the brunt of this negative effect on training, while the effect on production workers is insignificant. In my chapter on the employment and wage effects of trade, I demonstrate that the results in my training study do not tell the full story. Typically, production workers might suffer lower employment and wage levels when faced with import competition. On the other hand, rising demand for exports, through their effect on mounting domestic product demand, is associated with increases in industry employment and wage levels for both production and nonproduction workers. This suggests that when we discuss the effect of trade on employment and wages, we should not overlook the positive effect that arises from increasing foreign demand.; The effect of trade on the U.S. labor market is of great importance given the continuing rise in trade in both the manufacturing and service sectors. My dissertation suggests that workers could potentially bear greater costs in the face of increased globalization. How to mitigate these potential negative effects is a crucial policy question.无限制：本论文聚焦贸易对美国国内劳动力市场的影响，并从两个维度拓展现有研究。其一，本文探讨进口竞争对美国制造业企业培训的影响；其二，本文将Freeman与Katz（1991）、Kletzer（2002）关于贸易对就业与工资影响的研究拓展至2001年。 现有研究尚未关注进口对企业培训的影响，而该议题具有重要意义——企业培训是影响劳动者收入与工作保障的核心因素。具体而言，本文基于全国青年纵向调查（National Longitudinal Survey of Youth）数据，考察进口对个体参与企业培训情况的影响。整体研究结果显示，进口竞争对企业培训产生负向影响；且来自中低收入国家的进口对培训的负向冲击显著强于高收入国家进口。不过，本文未发现高技术产业与低技术产业的进口影响存在显著差异。最后，行业内最终商品进口对培训的负向影响强于中间商品进口。因此，限制进口竞争（尤其是来自中低收入国家的进口）的呼声不难理解：美国劳动者培训机会的减少，可被视为对"优质岗位"的侵蚀。 关于企业培训的研究结果表明，非生产工人承受了此次培训负向冲击的主要部分，而生产工人所受影响并不显著。在关于贸易对就业与工资影响的章节中，本文表明培训研究的结论并未涵盖全部影响机制。通常而言，面临进口竞争时，生产工人的就业与工资水平可能出现下滑；另一方面，出口需求的上升通过拉动国内产品需求增长，与生产工人和非生产工人的行业就业及工资水平提升均呈正相关关系。这意味着，在讨论贸易对就业与工资的影响时，不应忽视由海外需求增长所带来的正向效应。 随着制造业与服务业贸易规模持续扩大，贸易对美国劳动力市场的影响具有重要现实意义。本论文的研究表明，面对全球化程度加深，劳动者可能承担更多的潜在成本。如何缓解这些潜在的负向影响，是至关重要的政策议题。