Replication Data for: Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict Shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram

Replication files for: Estimating the Spillover Economic Effects of Foreign Conflict Shocks: Evidence from Boko Haram What are the spillover effects of foreign conflicts on regional economies, and what local factors can help mitigate the impact of such economic shocks? Adopting a difference-in-difference framework leveraging the breakout of the Boko Haram insurgency in Northeastern Nigeria in 2009, we study its effects in neighboring areas in Cameroon, Chad and Niger that were not directly targeted by Boko Haram activities until the mid 2010s. We find strong negative effects on regional economic activities -- proxied by reductions in nighttime lights -- particularly amongst areas within 200 km from the Boko Haram area. This negative impact is concentrated in urban areas, as trade was impacted and economic uncertainty rose. The rise of Boko Haram also resulted in more agricultural burning. Foreign conflict shocks can thus accentuate pressure on domestic resources. Focusing on the heterogeneity of the impacts, we find smaller resilience effects in those areas with a worse geography, less agricultural development, more limited infrastructure, and weaker markets and institutions. Overall, these findings suggest that conflicts may have larger spillover effects in geographically challenging and/or economically poorer regions, as is the case in various regions of Africa.复现文件：《外来冲突冲击的经济溢出效应估算——基于博科圣地的实证证据》 本研究聚焦两大核心议题：外来冲突对区域经济的溢出效应具体表现为何？又有哪些本地因素能够有效缓解此类经济冲击的负面影响？本研究以2009年尼日利亚东北部博科圣地叛乱爆发为外生冲击事件，采用双重差分（Difference-in-Difference）框架，分析其对喀麦隆、乍得及尼日尔毗邻地区的溢出效应——上述地区直至2010年代中期仍未直接遭受博科圣地的军事活动波及。 研究结果显示，以夜间灯光（Nighttime Lights）亮度下降作为区域经济活动的代理变量，该叛乱对区域经济活动产生了显著负向影响，且这种影响在距博科圣地活动区域200公里范围内的地区尤为显著。由于贸易活动受阻、经济不确定性上升，这类负向影响主要集中于城镇地区。博科圣地的崛起还导致农业焚烧事件数量显著增加。由此可见，外来冲突冲击会加剧国内资源承载压力。 在探究影响的异质性特征时，我们发现，地理条件恶劣、农业发展水平偏低、基础设施薄弱以及市场与制度体系不完善的地区，其经济韧性相对更弱。总体而言，本研究结果表明，冲突在地理条件受限或经济欠发达地区可能会产生更为显著的溢出效应，这一结论与非洲诸多地区的实际情况相符。