Replication Data for: Local Demographic Change and U.S. Presidential Voting, 2012-2016

Immigration and demographic change have become highly salient in American politics, partly because of the 2016 campaign of Donald Trump. Previous research indicates that local influxes of immigrants or unfamiliar ethnic groups can generate threatened responses, but has either focused on non-electoral outcomes or has analyzed elections in large geographic units such as counties. Here, we examine whether demographic changes at low levels of aggregation were associated with vote shifts toward an anti-immigration presidential candidate between 2012 and 2016. To do so, we compile a novel, precinct-level data set of election results and demographic measures for almost 32,000 precincts in the states of Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Washington. We employ regression analyses varying model specifications and measures of demographic change. Our estimates uncover little evidence that influxes of Hispanics or non-citizen immigrants benefited Trump relative to past Republicans, instead consistently showing that such changes were associated with shifts to Trump's opponent.移民与人口结构变化已成为美国政坛极具关注度的议题，这在一定程度上源于唐纳德·特朗普2016年的总统竞选活动。既往研究表明，本地移民或陌生族裔的涌入会引发抵触性反应，但此类研究要么聚焦于非选举类结果，要么以县等大型地理单元为范围开展选举分析。本文旨在探究2012年至2016年间，低聚合度地理单元的人口结构变化，是否与选民投票转向反移民总统候选人的行为存在关联。为此，我们构建了一套全新的选区层级（precinct-level）数据集，涵盖佛罗里达州、佐治亚州、密歇根州、内华达州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州以及华盛顿州近3.2万个选区的选举结果与人口统计指标。我们采用了涵盖不同模型设定与人口结构变化衡量指标的回归分析方法。我们的回归估计结果显示，并无充分证据表明拉美裔或非公民移民的涌入令特朗普相较于往届共和党候选人更具优势；相反，此类人口结构变化始终与选民投票转向特朗普竞选对手的趋势相关联。