Data from: Adding fossil occupancy trajectories to the assessment of modern extinction risk

Besides helping to identify species traits that are commonly linked to extinction risk, the fossil record may also be directly relevant for assessing the extinction risk of extant species. Standing geographic distribution or occupancy is a strong predictor of both recent and past extinction risk, but the role of changes in occupancy is less widely assessed. Here we demonstrate, based on the Cenozoic fossil record of marine species, that both occupancy and its temporal trajectory are significant determinants of risk. Based on extinct species we develop a model on the additive and interacting effects of occupancy and its temporal changes on extinction risk. We use this model to predict extinction risk of extant species. The predictions suggest a moderate risk for marine species on average. However, some species seem to be on a long-term decline and potentially at a latent extinction risk, which is not considered in current risk assessments.除了有助于识别通常与灭绝风险相关的物种性状外，化石记录（fossil record）还可直接用于评估现存物种（extant species）的灭绝风险。当前地理分布范围或占有度（occupancy）是预测近期与历史灭绝风险的强预测因子，但有关占有度变化的作用却未得到广泛评估。本研究基于海洋物种的新生代（Cenozoic）化石记录，证实占有度及其时间动态轨迹均为灭绝风险的重要决定因素。我们依托已灭绝物种构建了模型，以解析占有度及其时间变化对灭绝风险的加性效应与交互效应，并利用该模型预测现存物种的灭绝风险。预测结果显示，海洋物种的平均灭绝风险处于中等水平；然而，部分物种似乎正处于长期衰退状态，存在潜在灭绝风险（latent extinction risk），而这一情况在当前的风险评估中并未被纳入考量。