Potential Distribution of Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope in China Based on MaxEnt and Its Response to Climate Change

Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope, a significant pest species of the Cerambycidae family, is widely distributed throughout China where it causes severe damage to various living tree species. It has emerged as a critical invasive organism threatening China's agricultural and forestry production as well as ecological security. This study comprehensively analyzed the key environmental factors influencing the geographical distribution of A. horsfieldiiand its spatiotemporal dynamics by integrating multi-source environmental data and employing ecological niche modeling.Model validation demonstrated high reliability and accuracy of our predictions, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value of 0.933, Kappa coefficient of 0.704, and true skill statistic (TSS) reaching 0.960. Our analysis identified four dominant environmental factors governing the distribution of A. horsfieldii: mean diurnal range (Bio2), temperature annual range (Bio7), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), and precipitation of coldest quarter (Bio19).Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable distribution area for A. horsfieldiiwas estimated at 212.394×10⁴km², primarily located in central, southern, eastern, southwestern, and northwestern China. Future projections under three climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) suggest significant reductions in highly and moderately suitable habitats, while low-suitability areas may expand into central, eastern and southwestern regions, with Chongqing, Henan and Anhui potentially becoming new suitable habitats. Notably, the centroid of suitable habitats shows a distinct migration trend toward Guangdong Province, exhibiting a characteristic distribution shift pattern described as "from inland to coastal areas and from high to low latitudes."This study provides scientific theoretical support for forestry authorities in controlling the spread of A. horsfieldii, while establishing a solid foundation for future ecological conservation and biosecurity strategies. The findings offer both theoretical insights and practical guidance for pest management and ecosystem protection.

霍氏扁角天牛（Anoplophora horsfieldii Hope）隶属于天牛科（Cerambycidae），是一类重要的林业害虫，广泛分布于中国境内，对多种活体林木造成严重危害。该物种已成为威胁中国农林生产与生态安全的关键入侵生物。
本研究整合多源环境数据，采用生态位模型（ecological niche modeling），全面分析了影响霍氏扁角天牛地理分布及其时空动态的关键环境因子。模型验证结果显示，本研究的预测结果具有极高可靠性与准确性：受试者工作特征曲线下面积（AUC）值达0.933，Kappa系数为0.704，真实技能统计量（TSS）高达0.960。
本研究识别出4个主导霍氏扁角天牛分布的关键环境因子：日温差均值（Bio2）、年温度极差（Bio7）、最干季度降水量（Bio17）以及最冷季度降水量（Bio19）。
在当前气候条件下，霍氏扁角天牛的总潜在适生分布面积约为212.394×10⁴平方千米，主要集中于中国华中、华南、华东、西南及西北地区。
针对3种气候情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5及SSP5-8.5）的未来预测结果显示，高度与中度适生栖息地将显著缩减，而低度适生区域可能向华中、华东及西南地区扩张，重庆、河南与安徽或成为新的适生区域。
值得注意的是，适生栖息地的质心呈现出向广东省明显迁移的趋势，其分布转移模式符合“从内陆向沿海、从高纬度向低纬度”的典型特征。
本研究为林业主管部门开展霍氏扁角天牛的防控工作提供了科学理论支撑，同时为后续生态保护与生物安全策略的制定奠定了坚实基础。研究结果可为害虫治理与生态系统保护提供理论参考与实践指导。