CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.5 m: ocean currents projections

Projected Hazard: Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios. CoSMoS v3.0 for Southern California shows projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Phase I data for Southern California include flood-hazard information for the coast from the border of Mexico to Pt. Conception. Changes from the initial November 2015 release may be reflected in small areas. Data are complete for the information presented but are considered preliminary; additional changes may be reflected with model improvements made for the Phase II data release in summer 2016. Details: Model background: The CoSMoS model comprises three tiers. Tier I consists of one Delft3D hydrodynamics FLOW grid for computation of tides, water level variations, flows, and currents and one SWAN grid for computation of wave generation and propagation across the continental shelf. The FLOW and SWAN models are two-way coupled so that tidal currents are accounted for in wave propagation and growth and conversely, so that orbital velocities generated by waves impart changes on tidal currents. The Tier I SWAN and FLOW models consist of identical structured curvilinear grids that extend from far offshore to the shore and range in resolution from 0.5 km in the offshore to 0.2 km in the nearshore. Spatially varying astronomic tidal amplitudes and phases and steric rises in water levels due to large-scale effects (for example, a prolonged rise in sea level) are applied along all open boundaries of the Tier I FLOW grid. Winds (split into eastward and northward components) and sea-level pressure (SLP) fields from CaRD10 (Dr. Dan Cayan, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, San Diego, California, written commun., 2014) that vary in both space and time are applied to all grid cells at each model time-step. Deep-water wave conditions, applied at the open boundaries of the Tier I SWAN model runs, were projected for the 21st century Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario (2011-2100) using the WaveWatch III numerical wave model (Tolman and others, 2002) and 3-hourly winds from the GFDL-ESM2M Global Climate Model (GCM). Tier II provides higher resolution near the shore and in areas that require greater resolution of physical processes (such as bays, harbors, and estuaries). A single nested outer grid and multiple two-way coupled domain decomposition (DD) structured grids allow for local grid refinement and higher resolution where needed. Tier II was segmented into 11 sections along the Southern California Bight, to reduce computation time and complete runs within computational limitations. Water-level and Neumann time-series, extracted from Tier I simulations, are applied to the shore-parallel and lateral open boundaries of each Tier II sub-model outer grid respectively. Several of the sub-models proved to be unstable with lateral Neumann boundaries; for those cases one or both of the lateral boundaries were converted to water-level time-series or left unassigned. The open-boundary time-series are extracted from completed Tier I simulations so that there is no communication from Tier II to Tier I. Because this one-way nesting could produce erroneous results near the boundaries of Tier II and because data near any model boundary are always suspect, Tier II sub-model extents were designed to overlap in the along-coast direction. In the landward direction, Tier II DD grids extend to the 10-m topographic contour; exceptions exist where channels (such as the Los Angeles River) or other low-lying regions extend very far inland. Space- and time-varying wind and SLP fields, identical to those used in Tier I simulations, are applied to all Tier II DD grids to allow for wind-setup and local inverse barometer effects (IBE, rise or depression of water levels in response to atmospheric pressure gradients). A total of 42 time-series fluvial discharges are included in the Tier II FLOW domains in an effort to simulate exacerbated flooding caused by backflow at the confluence of high river seaward flows and elevated coastal surge levels migrating inland. Time-varying fluvial discharges are applied either at the closed boundaries or distributed as point sources within the relevant model domains. Wave computations are accomplished with the SWAN model using two grids for each Tier II sub-model: one larger grid covering the same area as the outer FLOW grid and a second finer resolution two-way coupled nearshore nested grid. The nearshore grid extends from approximately 800-1,000 m water depth up to 8-10 m elevations onshore. The landward extension is included to allow for wave computations of the higher SLR scenarios. Time- and space-varying 2D wave spectra extracted from previously completed Tier I simulations are applied approximately every kilometer along the open boundaries of the outer Tier II sub-model SWAN grids. The same space- and time-varying wind fields used in Tier I simulations are also applied to both Tier II SWAN grids to allow for computation of local wave generation. Tier III for the entire Southern California Bight consists of 4,802 cross-shore transects (CST) spaced approximately 100 m apart in the along-shore direction. The profiles extend from the -15 m isobath to at least 10 m above NAVD88. The CSTs are truncated for cases where a lagoon or other waterway exists on the landward end of the profile. Time-varying water levels and wave parameters (significant wave heights, Hs; peak periods, Tp; and peak incident wave directions, Dp), extracted from Tier II grid cells that coincide with the seaward end of the CSTs, are applied at the open boundary of each CST. The XBeach model is run in a hydrostatic (no vertical pressure gradients) mode including event-based morphodynamic change. Wave propagation, two-way wave-current interaction, water-level variations, and wave runup are computed at each transect. XBeach simulations are included in the CoSMoS model to account for infragravity waves that can significantly extend the reach of wave runup (Roelvink and others, 2009) compared to short-wave incident waves. The U.S. west coast is particularly susceptible to infragravity waves at the shore due to breaking of long-period swell waves (Tp > 15). Resulting water levels (WLs) from both Delft3D (high interest bays and marshes) and open-coast XBeach (CSTs) were spatially combined and interpolated to a 10 m grid. These WL elevations are differenced from the originating 2 m digital elevation model (DEM) to determine final flooding extent and depth of flooding. Events: The model system is run for pre-determined scenarios of interest such as the 1-yr or 100-yr storm event in combination with sea-level rise. For Phase I, only the 100-year storm is run. Storms are first identified from time-series of total water level proxies (TWLpx) at the shore. TWLpx are computed for the majority of the 21st century (2010-2100), assuming a linear super-position of the major processes that contribute to the overall total water level. TWLpx time-series are then evaluated for extreme events, which define the boundary conditions for subsequent modeling with CoSMoS. Multiple 100-yr events are determined (varying Hs, Tp, Dp) and used for multiple model runs to better account for regional and directional flooding affects. Model results are combined and compiled into scenario-specific composites of flood projection. Digital Elevation Model (DEM): Our seamless, topobathymetric digital elevation model (DEM) was based largely upon the Coastal California TopoBathy Merge Project DEM, with some modifications performed by the USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center to incorporate the most recent, high-resolution topographic and bathymetric datasets available. Topography is derived from bare-earth light detection and ranging (lidar) data collected in 2009-2011 for the CA Coastal Conservancy Lidar Project and bathymetry from 2009-2010 bathymetric lidar as well as acoustic multi- and single-beam data collected primarily between 2001 and 2013. The DEM was constructed to define the shape of nearshore, beach, and cliff surfaces as accurately as possible, utilizing dozens of bathymetric and topographic data sets. These data were used to populate the majority of the Tier II grids and generate initial profiles of the 4,802 CSTs used for Tier III XBeach modeling. All data are referenced to NAD83 horizontal datum and NAVD88 vertical datum. Data for Tiers II and III are projected in UTM, zone 11. Outputs include: Projected ocean current velocities for the 100-year storm and 0.0 m sea-level rise scenario. Data correspond to the near-shore region including areas vulnerable to coastal flooding due to storm surge, sea-level anomalies, tide elevation, and wave run-up during the same storm and sea-level rise simulation. References Cited: Roelvink, J.A., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A.R., van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall, R., and Lescinski, J., 2009, Modeling storm impacts on beaches, dunes and barrier islands: Coastal Engineering, v. 56, p. 1,133–1,152, doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006. Tolman, H.L., Balasubramaniyan, B., Burroughs, L.D., Chalikov, D.V., Chao, Y.Y., Chen H.S., Gerald, V.M., 2002, Development and implementation of wind generated ocean surface wave models at NCEP: Weather and Forecasting, v. 17, p. 311-333.预估灾害：针对给定风暴情景与海平面上升（sea-level rise, SLR）情景，经模型推演得到的洋流速度（单位：米每秒）。 模型概述：海岸风暴模拟系统（Coastal Storm Modeling System，简称CoSMoS）可在数百公里的大地理尺度上，针对当前及未来海平面上升情景，精细推演风暴引发的海岸洪水与侵蚀过程（空间分辨率达米级）。面向南加州的CoSMoS v3.0可针对未来气候情景（含海平面上升与风暴过程）生成预估结果，为应急响应人员与海岸规划者提供关键的风暴灾害信息，助力提升公共安全、减轻物理损失，并在复杂海岸环境中更高效地管理与调配资源。 南加州第一阶段数据涵盖从墨西哥边境至康塞普西翁角（Pt. Conception）的海岸洪水灾害信息。2015年11月初始版本发布后的更新可能体现在少量区域中。本次展示的数据内容完整，但仍属于预发布版本；针对2016年夏季第二阶段数据发布所做的模型改进，可能会带来更多数据更新。 详细说明：模型背景：CoSMoS模型分为三个层级。第一层级包含一套用于计算潮汐、水位变化、水流与洋流的Delft3D水动力FLOW网格，以及一套用于计算陆架区波浪生成与传播的SWAN网格。FLOW与SWAN模型采用双向耦合模式：潮汐环流会被纳入波浪传播与成长的计算过程，反之，波浪产生的轨道流速也会对潮汐环流产生影响。第一层级的SWAN与FLOW网格采用完全一致的结构化曲线网格，覆盖从远海至近岸的全域，分辨率从远海的0.5千米逐步提升至近岸的0.2千米。第一层级FLOW网格的所有开边界均加载了空间分布变化的天文潮汐振幅与相位，以及由大尺度效应（如长期海平面上升）引发的水位热膨胀增量。每个模型时间步长内，所有网格单元均会加载由CaRD10提供的、随空间与时间动态变化的风场（分解为东向与北向分量）与海平面气压（sea-level pressure, SLP）场（数据来源：加州大学圣地亚哥分校斯克里普斯海洋研究所Dan Cayan博士，私人通信，2014年）。针对21世纪典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP）4.5情景（2011-2100年），研究团队采用WaveWatch III数值波浪模型（Tolman等，2002）与GFDL-ESM2M全球气候模型（Global Climate Model, GCM）提供的3小时间隔风场，推演得到第一层级SWAN模型开边界所需的深水波浪条件。 第二层级针对近岸区域及需要更高物理过程分辨率的区域（如海湾、港口与河口）提供更高的网格分辨率。该层级采用一套嵌套外网格与多套双向耦合的区域分解（domain decomposition, DD）结构化网格，可按需实现局部网格加密与更高分辨率模拟。为缩短计算时长并在计算资源限制内完成模拟，南加州湾沿岸的第二层级模型被划分为11个分区。 从第一层级模拟结果中提取的水位与诺依曼（Neumann）时间序列，分别加载至每个第二层级子模型外网格的岸线平行开边界与侧向开边界。部分子模型在采用侧向诺依曼边界时出现不稳定问题，针对此类情况，研究团队将一个或两个侧向边界转换为水位时间序列，或留空未设置边界。开边界时间序列均取自已完成的第一层级模拟结果，因此第二层级与第一层级之间不存在双向数据交互。由于这种单向嵌套方式可能在第二层级边界附近产生误差，且模型边界附近的数据通常存在不确定性，第二层级子模型的范围在沿岸方向上被设计为相互重叠。在向陆方向上，第二层级的区域分解网格延伸至10米地形等高线；仅在洛杉矶河等河道或其他低洼区域延伸至内陆较远处时，存在例外情况。所有第二层级区域分解网格均加载与第一层级模拟完全一致的时空变化风场与海平面气压场，以模拟风增水与局部逆气压效应（inverse barometer effects, IBE，即水位随大气压力梯度变化而抬升或下降）。 第二层级FLOW模型域中共包含42个河道径流时间序列，用于模拟高河道向海流量与向内陆迁移的海岸风暴增水交汇时，回流引发的加剧洪水过程。时变河道径流荷载可加载至闭合边界，或在相关模型域内以点源形式分布。 波浪计算采用SWAN模型，每个第二层级子模型配备两套网格：一套覆盖范围与外FLOW网格一致的大尺度网格，以及一套分辨率更高的双向耦合近岸嵌套网格。近岸网格的覆盖范围从水深约800-1000米的区域延伸至陆上8-10米高程区域，该向陆延伸设置用于支持更高海平面上升情景下的波浪计算。从已完成的第一层级模拟结果中提取的时空变化二维波浪谱，每隔约1千米加载至第二层级子模型外SWAN网格的开边界。第二层级的两套SWAN网格均加载与第一层级模拟一致的时空变化风场，以计算局地波浪生成过程。 覆盖整个南加州湾的第三层级模型包含4802条跨岸断面（cross-shore transects, CST），断面沿沿岸方向的间距约为100米。每条断面从-15米等深线延伸至至少高于北美垂直基准面88版（NAVD88）10米的位置。若断面向陆端存在潟湖或其他水道，则该断面将被截断。从与跨岸断面向海端重合的第二层级网格单元中提取的时变水位与波浪参数（有效波高Hs、峰值周期Tp、入射波峰值方向Dp），将加载至每条跨岸断面的开边界。XBeach模型采用静水压模式（无垂直压力梯度）运行，包含基于事件的地貌动力变化过程。每条断面上均会计算波浪传播、双向波流相互作用、水位变化与波浪爬高过程。 CoSMoS模型引入XBeach模拟的目的是考虑重力内波的影响：相较于短波入射波，重力内波可显著提升波浪爬高的影响范围（Roelvink等，2009）。由于长周期涌浪（Tp>15秒）的破碎作用，美国西海岸近岸区域对重力内波尤为敏感。 从Delft3D模型（重点关注海湾与沼泽区域）与开放海岸XBeach模型（跨岸断面）得到的水位结果，将在空间上进行合并并插值至10米分辨率的网格。将这些水位高程与初始的2米分辨率数字高程模型（digital elevation model, DEM）进行差值计算，即可得到最终的洪水淹没范围与淹没深度。 模拟事件：模型系统针对预设的感兴趣情景开展模拟，例如1年一遇或100年一遇风暴事件叠加海平面上升的情景。第一阶段仅模拟了100年一遇风暴事件。风暴事件首先通过岸线处的总水位代理（total water level proxies, TWLpx）时间序列识别得到。总水位代理的计算基于21世纪大部分时段（2010-2100年）的主要贡献过程的线性叠加假设。随后，通过分析总水位代理时间序列识别极端事件，以此作为后续CoSMoS建模的边界条件。研究团队确定了多组100年一遇风暴事件（有效波高、峰值周期、入射波方向均存在差异），并开展多轮模型模拟，以更全面地反映区域与方向对洪水淹没的影响。最终将各轮模拟结果合并，整理为针对特定情景的洪水预估合成结果。 数字高程模型（DEM）：本研究的无缝岸线水深一体化数字高程模型（topobathymetric digital elevation model）主要基于加州海岸地形水深合并项目（Coastal California TopoBathy Merge Project）的DEM数据，美国地质调查局地球资源与科学中心（USGS Earth Resources Observation and Science, EROS）对其进行了部分修改，以纳入当前可获取的最新高分辨率地形与水深数据集。地形数据源自2009-2011年加州海岸管理局激光雷达项目采集的裸土激光探测与测距（light detection and ranging, lidar）数据，水深数据则源自2009-2010年的水深激光雷达数据，以及2001-2013年采集的多波束与单波束声学测深数据。本DEM的构建旨在尽可能精准地刻画近岸、海滩与崖壁的地表形态，整合了数十套地形与水深数据集。这些数据被用于填充大部分第二层级网格，并为第三层级XBeach模拟所用的4802条跨岸断面生成初始剖面。所有数据均采用NAD83水平基准面与NAVD88垂直基准面。第二与第三层级的数据采用UTM投影11区坐标系。 输出结果包括：针对100年一遇风暴与0.0米海平面上升情景的预估洋流速度。数据覆盖近岸区域，包括在同一风暴与海平面上升模拟中，易受风暴增水、海平面异常、潮汐水位与波浪爬高影响的海岸洪水脆弱区域。 参考文献： 1. Roelvink, J.A., Reniers, A., van Dongeren, A.R., van Thiel de Vries, J., McCall, R., Lescinski, J., 2009，风暴对海滩、沙丘与障壁岛影响的模拟：《Coastal Engineering》，第56卷，第1133-1152页，doi:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2009.08.006。 2. Tolman, H.L., Balasubramaniyan, B., Burroughs, L.D., Chalikov, D.V., Chao, Y.Y., Chen, H.S., Gerald, V.M., 2002，NCEP风浪数值模型的开发与应用：《Weather and Forecasting》，第17卷，第311-333页。