Experience and Self-Interest: Diverging Responses to Global Warming

People are increasingly feeling global warming’s effects through extreme heat and natural disasters. How do these climate shocks affect political attitudes? We argue that the effect of climate-related experiences depends significantly on self-interest. People in more vulnerable locations are more likely to respond to climate shocks with greater concern and more support for mitigation policy. We test this hypothesis with a macroeconomic model of climate change, geospatial data on climate shocks, and survey data of 148,712 people across 137 countries, and over time with the same 9,500 individuals in the United States. The results show that climate shocks heighten risk perceptions and lead to greater support for mitigation policies only among people in climate-vulnerable places. This responsiveness to experience is most evident in democratic countries and among people whose livelihoods depend on the weather. Integrating political economy and behavioral theories helps to explain how political attitudes change.如今，人们正通过极端高温与自然灾害日益切身感受到全球变暖的影响。这类气候冲击会如何影响民众的政治态度？我们提出，与气候相关的切身经历所产生的效应，在很大程度上取决于个体的自利性考量。身处气候更脆弱区域的民众，更有可能对气候冲击做出回应：表现出更高的气候风险关注度，且更支持气候减缓政策。我们通过三类研究工具与数据验证该假说：一是气候变化宏观经济模型、二是气候冲击的地理空间数据，三是覆盖137个国家共148712名民众的调研数据；同时针对美国境内9500名固定受访者开展了跨时间维度的追踪调研。研究结果显示，气候冲击仅会提升气候脆弱区域民众的风险感知，并促使他们更支持气候减缓政策。这种对切身经历的响应性，在民主国家以及生计依赖气象条件的群体中表现得最为显著。整合政治经济学与行为科学理论，有助于阐释民众政治态度的变化机制。