Data from: The evolution of bet hedging in response to local ecological conditions

Genotypes that hedge their bets can be favored by selection in an unpredictably varying environment. Bet hedging can be achieved by systematically expressing several phenotypes, such as one that readily attempts to reproduce and one that procrastinates in a dormant stage. But how much of each phenotype should a genotype express? Theory predicts that evolving bet-hedging strategies depend on local environmental variation, on how the population is regulated, and on exchanges with neighboring populations. Empirically, however, it remains unknown whether bet hedging can evolve to cope with the ecological conditions experienced by populations. Here we study the evolution of bet-hedging dormancy frequencies in two neighboring populations of the chestnut weevil, Curculio elephas. We estimate the temporal distribution of demographic parameters together with the form of the relationship between fecundity and population density and use both to parameterize models that predict the bet-hedging dormancy frequency expected to evolve in each population. Strikingly, the observed dormancy frequencies closely match predictions in their respective localities. We also found that dormancy frequencies vary randomly across generations, likely due to environmental perturbations of the underlying physiological mechanism. Using a model that includes these constraints, we predict the whole distribution of dormancy frequencies whose mean and shape agree with our observed data. Overall, our results suggest that dormancy frequencies have evolved according to local ecological conditions and physiological constraints.在不可预测的变化环境中，采取对冲策略（bet hedging）的基因型可被自然选择所青睐。对冲策略可通过系统性表达多种表型来实现，例如一类倾向于主动繁殖的表型，以及一类进入休眠状态、延迟繁殖的表型。但一个基因型应当以何种比例表达各类表型呢？理论预测，进化形成的对冲策略取决于当地的环境变异、种群的调控方式，以及与邻近种群的基因交流。 然而从实证角度而言，种群是否能演化出对冲策略以适应其所处的生态条件，目前仍未明确。 本研究针对两个邻近的栗象（*Curculio elephas*）种群，研究其对冲策略相关的休眠频率演化过程。 我们估算了种群统计参数的时间分布，以及繁殖力与种群密度之间的关系形式，并利用这两者为模型设定参数，以预测两个种群中预期演化出的对冲策略相关休眠频率。 令人惊讶的是，观测到的休眠频率与各自种群所在地的模型预测结果高度吻合。 我们还发现，休眠频率在世代间呈现随机波动，这可能源于底层生理机制受到环境扰动的影响。 通过纳入这些约束条件的模型，我们预测了休眠频率的完整分布，其均值与分布形态均与观测数据相符。 综上，本研究结果表明，休眠频率的演化符合当地生态条件与生理约束。