Charcoal records of two sediment cores off SW Africa

We analyze sedimentary charcoal records to show that the changes in fire regime over the past 21,000 yrs are predictable from changes in regional climates. Analyses of paleo- fire data show that fire increases monotonically with changes in temperature and peaks at intermediate moisture levels, and that temperature is quantitatively the most important driver of changes in biomass burning over the past 21,000 yrs. Given that a similar relationship between climate drivers and fire emerges from analyses of the interannual variability in biomass burning shown by remote-sensing observations of month-by-month burnt area between 1996 and 2008, our results signal a serious cause for concern in the face of continuing global warming.本研究通过分析沉积炭记录（sedimentary charcoal records），证实过去21000年间的火灾制度可通过区域气候变化进行预测。对古火灾数据的分析显示，火灾发生规模随温度变化呈单调递增趋势，并在中等湿度水平下达到峰值；在定量层面上，温度是过去21000年生物质燃烧变化的最核心驱动因子。鉴于针对1996至2008年逐月过火面积的遥感观测所揭示的生物质燃烧年际变率开展的分析，同样得到了气候驱动因子与火灾间的相似关联，因此在全球持续变暖的背景下，本研究结果发出了亟需严肃警惕的警示信号。