Replication Data for: The Great Society, Reagan's Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting

We build a model of American presidential voting in which the cumulative impression left by political events determines the preferences of voters. The impression varies by voter, depending on their age at the time the events took place. We find the Gallup presidential approval rating time series reflects the major events that influence voter preferences, with the most influential occur- ring during a voter’s teenage and early adult years. Our fitted model is predictive, explaining more than eighty percent of the variation in voting trends over the last half-century. It is also interpretable, dividing voters into five meaningful generations: New Deal Democrats, Eisenhower Republicans, 1960s Liberals, Reagan Conservatives, and Millennials. We present each generation in con- text of the political events that shaped its preferences, beginning in 1940 and ending with the 2016 election.

本研究构建了美国总统选举投票模型，该模型将政治事件留下的累积印象作为选民投票偏好的核心决定因素。此类印象存在个体差异，具体取决于选民在政治事件发生时的年龄。研究发现，盖洛普（Gallup）总统支持率时间序列能够精准反映影响选民偏好的重大政治事件，其中影响力最强的事件集中发生在选民的青少年及成年早期阶段。所拟合的模型具备出色的预测能力，可解释过去半个世纪以来选举投票趋势中超过80%的变异。该模型同时具备良好的可解释性，可将选民划分为五类具有明确学术意义的世代：新政民主党人、艾森豪威尔共和党人、1960年代自由派、里根保守派以及千禧一代。本研究结合塑造各世代选民偏好的政治事件背景，对每一类世代进行了系统阐述，时间跨度始于1940年，截至2016年美国总统选举。