Determinants of dengue virus dispersal in the Americas

Dengue viruses (DENV) are classified into four serotypes, each of which contains multiple genotypes. DENV genotypes introduced into the Americas over the past five decades have exhibited different rates and patterns of spatial dispersal. In order to understand factors underlying these patterns we utilized a statistical framework that allows for the integration of ecological, socioeconomic and air transport mobility data as predictors of viral diffusion while inferring the phylogeographic history. Predictors describing spatial diffusion based on several covariates were compared using a generalized linear model (GLM) approach, where the support for each scenario and its contribution is estimated simultaneously from the data set. While different predictors were identified for different serotypes, our analysis suggests that overall diffusion of DENV-1, -2, and -3 in the Americas was associated with airline traffic. The other significant predictors included human population size, the geographical distance between countries and between urban centers and the density of people living in urban environments.登革病毒（Dengue viruses, DENV）可分为四种血清型，每种血清型均包含多个基因型。过去五十余年间传入美洲的登革病毒基因型，展现出各异的空间传播速率与模式。为解析这些传播模式背后的驱动因素，本研究采用了一套可整合生态学、社会经济学及航空运输流动数据的统计框架，将上述数据作为病毒扩散的预测因子，同时推断病毒的系统发育地理历史。本研究通过广义线性模型（generalized linear model, GLM）方法，对比了基于多种协变量构建的空间传播预测因子，并可同时从数据集中估算各情景的支持度及其贡献权重。尽管不同血清型对应的核心预测因子存在差异，但分析结果表明，美洲地区DENV-1、DENV-2与DENV-3的整体传播与航空运输流量显著相关。其余具有统计学意义的预测因子还包括人口规模、国家间及城市中心间的地理距离，以及城市环境中的人口居住密度。