Políticas de emprego em economias semi-industrializado

ABSTRACT The main objective of this paper is to analyze economic policy options to foster economic growth and the absorption of unemployment in the short run in open semi-industrialized economies. We take into account the existence of idle capacity, and we postulate that at least part of these capacities could be put to use in the short run, stimulating output growth even as equilibrium in the trade balance is maintained. We emphasize the necessity to combine competitiveness of the real exchange with price stability and with a fair distribution of income. We thus propose to counterbalance the negative effects of an increase in the exchange rate on workers’ purchasing power, with compensation achieved either through direct subsidies or reduction in the Value Added Tax for basic goods. With two econometric exercises carried out for Brazil and Mexico we empirically analyze the basic hypothesis of this paper.摘要 本文核心研究目标为分析开放半工业化经济体中推动经济增长、短期吸纳失业人口的经济政策选项。本研究考量闲置产能的存在性，并假定短期内至少可激活其中部分产能，在维持贸易收支均衡的前提下刺激产出增长。本文强调，需将实际汇率竞争力、物价稳定与收入公平分配三者有机结合。据此，本文提出可通过对基本商品发放直接补贴或减免增值税（Value Added Tax）的方式进行补偿，以抵消汇率上调对劳动者购买力造成的负面影响。最后，本文针对巴西与墨西哥开展两项计量实证分析，对本文的核心假说进行了实证检验。