Data: Applying stochastic and Bayesian integral projection modeling to amphibian population viability analysis

Integral projection models (IPMs) can estimate the population dynamics of species for which both discrete life stages and continuous variables influence demographic rates. Stochastic IPMs for imperiled species, in turn, can facilitate population viability analyses (PVAs) to guide conservation decision-making. Biphasic amphibians are globally distributed, often highly imperiled, and ecologically well-suited to the IPM approach. Herein, we present the first stochastic size- and stage-structured IPM for a biphasic amphibian, the U.S. federally threatened California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS). This Bayesian model reveals that CTS population dynamics show the greatest elasticity to changes in juvenile and metamorph growth and that populations are likely to experience rapid growth at low density. We integrated this IPM with climatic drivers of CTS demography to develop a PVA and examined CTS extinction risk under the primary threats of habitat loss and climate change. The...