Zambezi River Basin Hydropower Assumptions

This project is a research initiative designed to address the major uncertainties facing hydropower development in the region, and to deepen understanding among stakeholders of the risks to hydropower from changes in climate and increased upstream water demand. For 18 months, researchers from the University of Cape Town, the Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering (Zambia) at the University of Zambia, OneWorld Sustainable Investments, University of Eduardo Mondlane, and Pöyry Management Consulting have been developing and applying a water supply and demand modelling tool for the Zambezi River Basin. The research was guided by a Steering Committee led by the Southern African Power Pool and including the Zambezi River Authority, the ZAMCOM Interim Secretariat, Southern African Development Community Energy, the UK Department for International Development, and the Climate and Development Knowledge Network. The model was applied to two future climate scenarios, reflecting possible “wetting” or “drying” climates, and two scenarios for irrigation expansion in the region. The results of the analysis point to dramatic potential negative impacts on major existing and planned hydropower investments. The research team and funders are committed to making this research accessible and in the public domain, including all of the modelling. This page includes links to all of the final deliverables of the project, including the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model and underlying datasets behind this. See more at: http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf本项目为一项科研倡议，旨在解决该地区水电开发面临的核心不确定性问题，并加深利益相关方对气候变化与上游需水增长所带来的水电开发风险的认知。过往18个月间，开普敦大学、赞比亚大学能源环境与工程中心（赞比亚）、OneWorld可持续投资公司、爱德华多·蒙德拉纳大学以及Pöyry管理咨询公司的研究人员，为赞比西河流域开发并应用了一套需供水模拟建模工具。本研究由南部非洲电力库牵头组建指导委员会进行督导，委员会成员涵盖赞比西河管理局、赞比西河水道委员会（ZAMCOM）临时秘书处、南部非洲发展共同体能源部门、英国国际发展部以及气候与发展知识网络。该模型被应用于两类未来气候情景与两类区域灌溉扩张情景：前者分别对应可能的"湿润化"与"干燥化"气候模式。分析结果显示，现有及规划中的大型水电投资项目或将面临显著的潜在负面影响。本研究团队与资助方承诺将本研究（含全部建模内容）开放获取并置于公共领域。本页面提供了本项目全部最终交付成果的链接，包括水资源评价与规划（Water Evaluation and Planning, WEAP）模型及其配套的基础数据集。更多详情请访问：http://www.erc.uct.ac.za/groups/esap/current/esap-zambezi1#sthash.N0IZSbPX.dpuf