A review of Chinese CO₂ emission projections to 2030: the role of economic structure and policy

The projections of 89 scenarios from 12 different models for the CO₂ emissions of China to 2030 are reviewed, along with wider examinations of lessons from the history of energy forecasting in OECD countries, and of the Chinese macroeconomic situation. Even by 2030, emissions in the scenarios span a factor of almost 2.5, indicating significant range and uncertainty. Statistical analysis of Kaya components suggests the carbon intensity of energy supply to be the strongest determining factor. However, most scenarios assume that industry¹ continues to account for more than 50% of total final energy demand. This is in contrast both to historical examples, which have consistently shown economies shifting from energy-intensive industrial bases to service-based structures as income per capita rises, and to recent Chinese policy statements, which reflect a similar ambition. It is also highly salient that major failures in energy and emissions projections can frequently be accounted for in retrospect by failures to anticipate such major economic structural shifts. In conclusion, while the future trajectory of Chinese emissions remains profoundly uncertain, the potential for a significant Chinese macroeconomic transition and its implications for the scale and structure of energy demand will be a crucial factor, to which energy-climate models must pay far more attention. <b>Policy relevance</b> The dramatic growth of Chinese emissions since 2000 has become a major factor in global emission prospects and the international political agenda. Many models project rapid continued emissions growth, but an apparent halt in Chinese emissions in 2014 has amplified debate. Projections and policy need to recognise fundamental uncertainties in emission prospects, because in addition to energy/climate-specific policies, they depend on the progress in Chinese macroeconomic reforms, which are poorly represented in the models we survey. Global projections, the international process, and the design of China's own policies (most obviously, its national cap-and-trade system) need to cope with the possibility of continued growth to peaking in 2030 (the central commitment in China's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution), but must also be prepared to exploit and encourage the possibilities of low-carbon development and much earlier peaking.

本研究梳理了12个不同模型给出的89种情景下，中国至2030年的二氧化碳（CO₂）排放预测结果，同时更广泛地检视了经济合作与发展组织（Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development，简称OECD）国家能源预测历史的经验教训，以及中国宏观经济运行态势。
即便到2030年，不同情景间的排放量差距仍接近2.5倍，这表明预测结果存在显著的离散范围与不确定性。
针对Kaya恒等式（Kaya Identity）各组分的统计分析表明，能源供应端的碳强度是排放量最主要的决定因素。
然而，多数情景均假定工业¹仍将占据最终能源总需求的50%以上。
这一假定既与历史发展经验相悖——纵观各国工业化历程，随着人均收入水平提升，经济体均会逐步从高耗能的工业基础转向服务主导型结构，也与中国近期的政策声明不符，后者明确体现了此类经济转型的目标。
同样值得高度警惕的是，复盘历次能源与排放预测的重大失误，其根源往往在于未能预见此类重大经济结构转型。
综上，尽管中国碳排放的未来走向仍存在极强不确定性，但中国宏观经济转型的可能性及其对能源需求规模与结构的影响，将是核心影响因素之一，能源-气候模型必须对此给予更多关注。
**政策相关性** 自2000年以来，中国碳排放的急剧增长已成为全球排放前景与国际政治议程的核心影响因素之一。
诸多模型此前预测中国碳排放将持续快速增长，但2014年中国碳排放的明显放缓引发了学界与政策界的广泛争议。
排放预测与政策制定需正视排放前景的根本性不确定性：除能源与气候专项政策外，预测结果还取决于中国宏观经济改革的推进进程，而这一维度在本次调研覆盖的模型中鲜有充分体现。
全球排放预测、国际气候谈判进程以及中国自身的政策设计（最显著的是其全国碳排放权交易体系），不仅需要应对2030年达峰的可能性——这是中国国家自主贡献（Intended Nationally Determined Contribution，简称INDC）中的核心承诺，也必须做好准备，以挖掘并推动低碳发展与更早达峰的潜在路径。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集综述了基于89个场景和12个模型的中国到2030年CO2排放预测，强调排放范围存在高达2.5倍的不确定性，其中能源供应的碳强度是主要决定因素。它指出大多数预测假设工业持续主导能源需求，但历史趋势和中国政策显示可能向服务型经济转型，这影响了预测准确性，并呼吁模型更多关注宏观经济结构变化的影响。