Sustainable use of groundwater may dramatically reduce irrigated production of maize, soybean, and wheat

Groundwater extraction in the United States (US) is unsustainable, making it essential to understand the impacts of limited water use on irrigated agriculture. Here, we integrate a gridded crop model with satellite observations, recharge estimates, and water survey data to assess the effects of sustainable groundwater withdrawals on US irrigated agricultural production.  Our model agrees with satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (R2 = 0.68), as well as survey production estimates from the United States Department of Agriculture (R2 = 0.82 – 0.94 for county-level production and 0.37 – 0.54 for county-level yield). Using the optimistic assumption that groundwater extraction equals estimated effective aquifer recharge rate, we find that sustainable groundwater use decreases US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and winter wheat by 20%, 6%, and 25%, respectively. Using a more conservative assumption of groundwater availability, US irrigated production of maize, soybean, and ...