Rapid plastic breeding response to rain matches peak prey abundance in a tropical savannah bird

1. Changes in climate are shifting the timing of life cycle events in the natural world. Compared to northern-temperate areas, these effects are relatively poorly understood in tropical and southern regions, where there is limited information on how timing of breeding and food availability are affected by climatic factors, and where patterns of breeding activity are more unpredictable within and between years. 2. Combining a new statistical modelling approach with 5 years of continuous individual-based monitoring of a monsoonal tropical insectivorous bird, we quantified (i) the proximate climatic drivers at two trophic levels: timing of breeding and abundance of arthropod prey; (ii) the effect of climate variation on reproductive output and (iii) the role of individual plasticity. 3. Rainfall was identified as the main determinant of phenology at both trophic levels. Throughout the year, likelihood of egg laying increased very rapidly in response to even small amounts of rain during th...