Assessment of greenhouse gas mitigation pathways for Thailand towards achievement of the 2°C and 1.5°C Paris Agreement targets

This study performed scenario analysis using the MARKAL modelling framework to assess Thailand’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emission pathways over the period 2010–2050, to explore the possibilities of achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100, in pursuit of a maximum temperature rise of 2°C and 1.5°C by the end of the century. The shift from 2°C pathways to 1.5°C pathways would demand much more effort and pose greater challenges in terms of transformational changes required in the energy supply and demand sectors of Thailand. Carbon neutrality in the energy supply system would be achievable with negative emissions through the adoption of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The strong deployment of renewable energy-based power generation would also aid in the rapid decarbonization of the energy supply sector. The demand sectors would face more challenges requiring rapid and extensive deployment of energy efficient and low carbon technologies. The commercial sector may need to undergo deep decarbonization in the 1.5°C scenarios by 2050 while the industrial and residential sectors will need to curb GHG emissions by a large amount even under 2°C scenarios. The transportation sector would face challenges in shifting from private to public modes of transport, including wide adoption of electric and biofuel vehicles, in order to achieve the 1.5°C target. <b>Key Policy insights</b>The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050.Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050.Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements. The attainment of 2°C and 1.5°C targets demand for a wide scale adoption of BECCS in Thailand resulting in negative emissions in the power sector even before 2050. Biomass, solar photovoltaics, and wind power would make up to the largest portion in the total power generation mix of Thailand in the 2°C and 1.5°C scenarios by 2050. Achieving carbon neutrality of the energy system by 2060–2100 is a challenging task for Thailand requiring higher investments and supportive policy actions to promote renewables, carbon capture and storage technologies, and energy efficiency enhancements.本研究采用MARKAL建模框架开展情景分析，评估泰国2010-2050年间的温室气体（GHG）排放路径，探索2060-2100年前实现能源系统碳中和的可能性，以达成本世纪末全球温升控制在2℃与1.5℃的目标。相较于2℃升温情景转向1.5℃升温情景，泰国能源供需两侧的转型变革将需要付出更多努力，面临更大挑战。通过部署生物质能碳捕集与封存（BECCS）实现负排放，可实现能源供应系统的碳中和目标。大力部署可再生能源发电也有助于能源供应部门快速脱碳。需求侧部门则面临更大挑战，需快速且大规模部署节能与低碳技术。在1.5℃升温情景下，商业部门需在2050年前实现深度脱碳；即便在2℃升温情景下，工业与住宅部门也需大幅削减温室气体排放。交通运输部门需推动出行方式从私人交通向公共交通转型，包括广泛采用电动与生物燃料车辆，以达成1.5℃温控目标。 <b>核心政策启示</b> 达成2℃与1.5℃温控目标要求泰国大规模推广碳捕集与封存（BECCS）技术，甚至可在2050年前实现电力部门的负排放。到2050年，在2℃与1.5℃升温情景下，生物质、太阳能光伏（solar photovoltaics）与风电将成为泰国总发电结构中的主力电源。泰国在2060-2100年前实现能源系统碳中和是一项极具挑战性的任务，需要加大投资并出台扶持政策，以推广可再生能源、碳捕集与封存技术以及提升能源效率。 达成2℃与1.5℃温控目标要求泰国大规模推广碳捕集与封存（BECCS）技术，甚至可在2050年前实现电力部门的负排放。到2050年，在2℃与1.5℃升温情景下，生物质、太阳能光伏（solar photovoltaics）与风电将成为泰国总发电结构中的主力电源。泰国在2060-2100年前实现能源系统碳中和是一项极具挑战性的任务，需要加大投资并出台扶持政策，以推广可再生能源、碳捕集与封存技术以及提升能源效率。