Priority effects within coinfected hosts can drive unexpected population-scale patterns of parasite prevalence

Organisms are frequently coinfected by multiple parasite strains and species, and interactions between parasites within hosts are known to influence parasite prevalence and diversity, as well as epidemic timing. Importantly, interactions between coinfecting parasites can be affected by the order in which they infect hosts (i.e. within-host priority effects). In this study, we use a single-host, two-pathogen, SI model with environmental transmission to explore how within-host priority effects scale up to alter host population-scale infection patterns. Specifically, we ask how parasite prevalence changes in the presence of different types of priority effects. We consider two scenarios without priority effects and four scenarios with priority effects where there is either an advantage or a disadvantage to being the first to infect in a coinfected host. Models without priority effects always predict negative relationships between the prevalences of both parasites. In contrast, models with p...