Quasi-GAM model estimates of the effects of climate variables on total disease incidence in Bello, Cúcuta and Moniquirá.

Climate variables: maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), average temperature (Tavg), maximum wind speed (WSmax), minimum wind speed (WSmin), average wind speed (WSavg), total precipitation and average humidity (Havg) with 4 (lag4) and 8 (lag8) week time lags. The model statistics, GCV is the minimised generalised cross validation which was used for smoothness selection. Explained variance is the percentage of total variance the Quasi-GAM model could explain. For smooth terms the effective degrees of freedom (edf) and F-statistic (F). For linear terms the slope estimate (Estimate) and standard error of the mean (SE). (*) Significant variable at the 0.001 level.