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Forecasts in a Slightly Misspecified Finite Order VAR

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NBER2011-01-01 更新2025-01-04 收录
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We propose a Bayesian procedure for exploiting small, possibly long-lag linear predictability in the innovations of a finite order autoregression. We model the innovations as having a log-spectral density that is a continuous mean-zero Gaussian process of order 1/T. This local embedding makes the

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2011-01-01
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