China's future food demand projection based on province-specific diets and shared socioeconomic pathways

Building on the vast heterogeneity in dietary practices and population size across China, which contributed to profound regional disparities in food demand, we incorporated regional dietary preferences and energy needs across different age groups, genders, and residential statuses to estimate future regional dietary patterns and project raw grain demand for 13 major foods (rice, wheat, maize, tubers, highland barley, beans, pork, beef, mutton, poultry, aquatic products, eggs, and dairy products) in China from 2020 to 2100 across the five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios at the provincial level.The projected diets were proven to be consistent with Chinese dietary practices and fulfilled macronutritionsrequirements, compared to dietary guidelines from the EAT-Lancet Commission, the Chinese Nutrition Society, and major peer studies. Diet directly relates to food security, human health, and environmental sustainability. The dataset developed in this study provides detailed demand information at both spatial and food-specific levels, offering valuable insights for conducting food management strategies tailored to regional needs and optimizing resource allocation strategies. The data unit is ten thousand tons.

本研究基于中国饮食实践与人口规模的广泛异质性——该异质性造就了食物需求层面的显著区域差异——纳入不同年龄、性别与居住身份下的区域饮食偏好与能量需求，以此估算未来区域饮食模式，并在五种共享社会经济路径（SSP）情景下，于省级尺度预测2020至2100年中国13类主要食物的原粮需求，这13类食物包括稻米、小麦、玉米、薯类、青稞、豆类、猪肉、牛肉、羊肉、禽肉、水产品、蛋类及乳制品。经检验，所预测的饮食模式与中国本土饮食实践相符，且相较于EAT-柳叶刀委员会、中国营养学会及现有主流同行评议研究提出的膳食指南，可满足宏量营养素摄入需求。饮食直接关联粮食安全、人类健康与环境可持续性。本研究构建的数据集在空间维度与食物品类维度均提供了精细化的需求信息，可为制定适配区域需求的粮食管理策略、优化资源配置方案提供极具价值的参考依据。本数据集的统计单位为万吨。