Climate risk of terrestrial habitats in the Basque Country

The project is part of the Basque Government's Energy Transition and Climate Change Plan 2021-2024 (Basque Government, 2021), which includes among its 15 flagship initiatives promoting a "resilient Basque Natura 2000 Network that favors climate neutrality", helping to increase the resilience of the territory while facilitating the path to territorial neutrality. In 2017, the project "Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change of the Natura 2000 Network in the Basque Country" was initiated within the framework of the KLIMATEK R&D projects (innovation and demonstration projects in adaptation to climate change) promoted by the Basque Government. At that time, no specific analyses had been carried out at the regional level on the impact of climate change on the biodiversity of the Basque Country. Therefore, the calculation of climate risk was approached from an ecosystem approach, based on habitats assuming that being the species dependent on their habitat, this approach would allow a climate risk analysis with a regional perspective, evaluating how stable the set of habitats can be and helping to establish priorities in the management of natural heritage.The climate risk methodology had to be developed from the beginning applying the recommendations of reference organisms in adaptation to climate change such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014). The main innovation of this project was to develop a quantitative methodology based on geospatial data to assess the climate risk of the terrestrial habitats of the CAPV based on regionalized climate scenarios (RCP 8.5 and period 2071-2100) for the CAPV (Ihobe, 2017). The reference cartography as well as the base maps are nourished by the existing information in GeoEuskadi (Spatial Data Infrastructure of the Basque Country).This work was developed over 2 years and had the participation of a monitoring committee composed of experts in natural heritage management who were contrasting and agreeing on the different steps of the methodology. The detailed description can be found in the specific document "Methodology for calculating the climate risk of terrestrial habitats in the Basque Country. Application in the Natura 2000 Network" (Ihobe, 2021). 40 terrestrial habitats, 27 Habitats of Community Interest (according to the Habitats and Birds Directives) and 13 Habitats of Regional Interest (according to their EUNIS classification) were evaluated, representing 97% of the total area occupied by these habitats in the CAPV and 98% of the surface of the Natura 2000 Network, so their results would be considered representative of their regional situation.本项目隶属于巴斯克自治区政府2021-2024年能源转型与气候变化计划（巴斯克自治区政府，2021），该计划的15项旗舰举措之一旨在打造“助力气候中性的韧性巴斯克Natura 2000保护地网络（Natura 2000 Network）”，在提升区域生态韧性的同时，推动区域气候中性目标的落地。2017年，依托巴斯克自治区政府发起的KLIMATEK研发项目框架（气候变化适应领域的创新与示范项目），启动了“巴斯克地区Natura 2000保护地网络的气候变化脆弱性与适应策略”项目。彼时，区域层面尚无针对气候变化对巴斯克生物多样性影响的专项分析。因此，研究采用生态系统方法开展气候风险评估：以栖息地为分析基础，假定物种依赖其栖息生境，该方法可实现具备区域视角的气候风险分析，评估各类栖息生境的整体稳定性，并助力制定自然遗产管理的优先级方案。气候风险评估方法需从头开发，严格遵循气候变化适应领域权威机构的指导建议，例如政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change，IPCC，2014）。本项目的核心创新在于开发基于地理空间数据的定量方法，用于评估巴斯克自治区（Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco，CAPV）陆地生境的气候风险，所用区域化气候情景为RCP 8.5及2071-2100年时段，相关成果由Ihobe（2017）发布。参考制图与底图数据均来源于GeoEuskadi（巴斯克自治区空间数据基础设施）的现有信息。本研究历时两年完成，组建了由自然遗产管理专家组成的监督委员会，对方法学的各环节进行论证与共识确认。详细方法描述可参见专项文档《巴斯克自治区陆地生境气候风险计算方法：在Natura 2000保护地网络中的应用》（Ihobe，2021）。本次评估共涵盖40类陆地生境，其中27类为符合欧盟《栖息地与鸟类指令》要求的社区重要栖息地，13类为依据EUNIS分类标准划定的区域重要栖息地；上述生境占巴斯克自治区该类生境总分布面积的97%，占Natura 2000保护地网络总面积的98%，因此其评估结果可代表该区域的整体状况。