<b>Small herd considerations for SSBSS 410-day calving intervals</b>

<b>Overview</b>This data illustrates uses 2023 data to assess the potential financial impact of the Scottish Government's proposed Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme (SSBSS) 410-day calving interval condition on small herds. In addition, for herds with less than 10 dams calving in 2023 the number of businesses (BRN - Business Reference Number) and number of animals affected by the number of ineligible dams (0-9) arising from the 410-day calving interval is provided. The analysis utilises Cattle Tracing System (CTS) that SRUC have access to through a data sharing agreement with the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA) and devolved administrations. Through linking the CTS data extracts to the Scottish Government's Rural Payments and Inspectorate Division (RPID) payments data this analysis only uses beef breed dams on agricultural holdings associated with SSBSS claims.<b>Financial Impact Illustration (page 1)</b>This hypothetical illustration uses the published 2023 SSBSS payment rates alongside the estimated payment rates if a 410 day calving interval was to be introduced retrospectively (based on 2023 published analysis https://ruralexchange.scot/policy/ssbss-410day-calving-interval/).The number of dams that calved in 2023 provides a proxy for the number of eligible SSBSS beef calves. For 2023 this this shown in the first column in grey. The 2023 existing payment estimate for herds of 1 to 50 in provided in the first column (for simplification all dams are assumed to have calves that meet the 30 day retention period).The estimated number of eligible dams, expected payments and change in payments are then shown for 410 calving rate conditions where different numbers of dams are ineligible due to failing to meet the 410 day threshold. The first column for each coloured scenario grouping shows how many eligible dams that 2023 herd size would have under that scenario. <b>Scenario (a): 100% of dams meet the 410 day condition (l</b><b>ight blue)</b> - there is 100% eligibility based on dam performance. Any BRN falling into this scenario is predicted to receive a financial uplift in 2025 due to the ringfenced Mainland and Island SSBSS budgets.<b>Scenario (b): 1 dam fails to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (yellow).</b> Those herds with 1-7 dams (proxy for calves) in 2023 would be faced with reduced levels of SSBSS support (i.e. if a herd claim is less than 8 animals then the only way they would not face lower payments is to have 100% claims meeting the 410 day dam condition). All other herd sizes see uplifts if they only have a single calf not being eligible due to the 410 CI condition.<b>Scenario (c): 2 dams fail to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (p</b><b>each). </b>Herds with 1-15 calves in 2023 would be faced reduced support if there were 2 ineligible animals due to the 410 day dam condition. All other herd sizes would see uplifts if they only had 2 calves ineligible due to the 410 day dam condition. It is worth noting that 2 out of 3 calves being ineligible due to the calving interval dam condition under this scenario would mean only 33% eligibility and 61% reduction in payment – a 61% reduction in payment on a 50 calf claim would equate to only having 16 eligible calves.<b>Scenario (d): 3 dams fail to </b><b>meet the 410 day condition (p</b><b>ink).</b> On the mainland, herds with 21 SSBSS claims would receive lower payments in 2023 if there were 3 ineligible calves due to 410 CI rule. On Islands SSBSS claims of 23 calved or less would receive lower payments if 3 animals failed due to the dam conditionality condition.These scenarios can be extended.<b>Herds under 10 dams (page 2)</b>In the first table the number of businesses (BRNs), calved dams and the number of 410 day calving interval ineligible and eligible dams are provided by herd size classes alongside relative proportions of businesses and animal. Herd sizes are based on the number of dams calving with 2023 (1-9 dams, 10-19 dams, 20-29 dams, 30+ dams). Note: eligible dams include previous calved cows that must meet 410 CI condition plus first calving heifers. The data shows that 15% of mainland and 39% of island SSBSS claimants (BRNs) had less than 10 dams in 2023 with 14% and 18% of BRNs with 10-19 dams respectively. Herds of under 10 dams accounted for 1.2% of mainland dams and 5.2% of island dams in 2023. Herds of 10-19 accounted for 3.1% of mainland dams and 7.3% of island dams in 2023. On the mainland 22.6% of dams did not meet the 410 day cow calving interval condition in herd sizes of under 10 dams. On the islands 18.1% of dams failed to meet the 410 day condition in 2023. This compared to 13.7% and 12.3% of dams in herds of 30+ dams in the mainland and islands respectively.The second table in page 2 shows the number of businesses (BRNs) and dams with herd sizes of less than 10 that have different numbers of ineligible claims due to the 410 day calving interval. For example:On the mainland 44% of herds (and 38% of dams) had no ineligible dams due to the 410 calving interval rule. On the islands 51% of herds and 45% of dams had no animals ineligible due to the 410 day rule in 2023.Herds with 1 ineligible animal due to the 410 day rule accounted for 27% of SSBSS businesses with less than 10 dams in both the mainland and islands - accounting for 28% and 29% of the dams in these small herds in the mainland and islands.

<b>概述</b>本数据集基于2023年数据，评估苏格兰政府拟议的苏格兰肉牛犊牛支持计划（Scottish Suckler Beef Support Scheme, SSBSS）中410天产犊间隔要求对小型牛群的潜在财务影响。此外，针对2023年产犊母牛数量少于10头的牛群，本数据集提供了因410天产犊间隔要求而不符合资格的母牛数量（0-9头）对应的经营主体（Business Reference Number, BRN，经营参考编号）数量及受影响牲畜数量。本次分析使用了苏格兰乡村学院（Scotland's Rural College, SRUC）通过与动植物卫生检疫局（Animal and Plant Health Agency, APHA）及分权政府达成的数据共享协议所获取的牛只追踪系统（Cattle Tracing System, CTS）数据。通过将牛只追踪系统提取数据与苏格兰政府农村支付与监察局（Rural Payments and Inspectorate Division, RPID）的支付数据进行关联，本次分析仅纳入与SSBSS申报相关的农业经营主体中的肉用母牛。
<b>财务影响模拟（第1页）</b>本模拟分析采用2023年已发布的SSBSS支付标准，同时结合若追溯实施410天产犊间隔要求后的估算支付标准（基于2023年已发布的分析报告：https://ruralexchange.scot/policy/ssbss-410day-calving-interval/）。2023年产犊母牛的数量可作为符合SSBSS资格的肉牛犊牛数量的替代指标。2023年的该数据以灰色列示于首栏。首栏同时给出了1至50头规模牛群的2023年现有支付估算额（为简化分析，假设所有母牛所产犊牛均满足30天饲养留存要求）。随后，针对不同数量母牛因未达到410天产犊间隔阈值而不符合资格的场景，本分析列出了符合资格母牛的估算数量、预期支付额及支付额变化情况。每个彩色场景分组的首栏展示了在该场景下，2023年对应规模牛群的合格母牛数量。
<b>场景(a)：100%母牛符合410天产犊间隔要求（浅蓝色）</b>——基于母牛表现可获得全额资格。由于苏格兰本土与离岛地区的SSBSS预算均已划定专款，所有归入该场景的经营主体预计将在2025年获得财务补贴提升。
<b>场景(b)：1头母牛未符合410天产犊间隔要求（黄色）</b>2023年拥有1-7头产犊母牛（对应犊牛数量）的牛群将面临SSBSS补贴额度下调的情况（即若牛群申报的犊牛数量少于8头，则仅当100%申报的犊牛对应的母牛均符合410天产犊间隔要求时，才可避免补贴降低）。对于其他规模的牛群，若仅1头犊牛因410天产犊间隔（CI）要求不符合资格，则可获得补贴提升。
<b>场景(c)：2头母牛未符合410天产犊间隔要求（桃色）</b>2023年拥有1-15头犊牛的牛群，若有2头母牛因410天产犊间隔要求不符合资格，则将面临补贴额度下调。对于其他规模的牛群，若仅2头犊牛因该要求不符合资格，则可获得补贴提升。值得注意的是，在本场景下，若3头犊牛中有2头因产犊间隔要求不符合资格，则意味着仅33%的犊牛符合资格，补贴将减少61%——以50头犊牛的申报为例，61%的补贴削减将仅剩余16头符合资格的犊牛对应的补贴额。
<b>场景(d)：3头母牛未符合410天产犊间隔要求（粉色）</b>在苏格兰本土地区，若有3头犊牛因410天产犊间隔要求不符合资格，则申报21头及以上SSBSS补贴的牛群将在2023年获得更低的支付额度。在离岛地区，若有3头牲畜因母牛资格条件未达标，则申报23头及以下SSBSS补贴的牛群将获得更低的支付额度。上述场景可进一步拓展延伸。
<b>产犊母牛少于10头的牛群（第2页）</b>首个表格按牛群规模层级列出了经营主体（BRN）数量、产犊母牛数量，以及因410天产犊间隔要求不符合及符合资格的母牛数量，同时附带经营主体与牲畜的相对占比。牛群规模基于2023年产犊母牛的数量划分：1-9头、10-19头、20-29头及30头及以上。注：符合资格的母牛包括需满足410天产犊间隔要求的既往产犊母牛，以及初产母牛。数据显示，2023年苏格兰本土地区15%、离岛地区39%的SSBSS申报经营主体（BRN）的产犊母牛数量少于10头；另有14%的本土经营主体与18%的离岛经营主体的产犊母牛数量处于10-19头区间。2023年，产犊母牛少于10头的牛群占本土产犊母牛总数的1.2%，占离岛产犊母牛总数的5.2%；产犊母牛10-19头的牛群占本土产犊母牛总数的3.1%，占离岛产犊母牛总数的7.3%。在产犊母牛少于10头的牛群中，本土地区有22.6%的母牛未达到410天产犊间隔要求；离岛地区2023年有18.1%的母牛未符合该要求。而在30头及以上产犊母牛的牛群中，本土与离岛地区未符合要求的母牛占比分别为13.7%与12.3%。
第2页的第二个表格展示了产犊母牛少于10头的牛群中，因410天产犊间隔要求不符合资格的申报数量不同的经营主体（BRN）与母牛数量。示例如下：
2023年，本土地区44%的牛群（对应38%的母牛）未出现因410天产犊间隔要求不符合资格的母牛；离岛地区则有51%的牛群（对应45%的母牛）未出现不符合资格的牲畜。
在产犊母牛少于10头的SSBSS申报经营主体中，因410天产犊间隔要求出现1头不符合资格牲畜的牛群占比，本土与离岛地区均为27%，对应这类小型牛群中不符合资格的母牛占比分别为28%与29%。

搜集汇总

背景与挑战

背景概述

该数据集使用2023年数据评估苏格兰政府提出的SSBSS（苏格兰肉牛支持计划）410天产犊间隔条件对小型牛群的潜在财务影响，特别关注产犊数少于10头的牛群。数据集基于牛只追踪系统和政府支付数据，通过不同场景分析支付变化，并显示小型牛群中不符合条件的母牛比例，旨在为农业政策改革提供数据支持。