Microclimate-based species distribution models in complex terrain indicate widespread cryptic refugia under climate change

Aim: Species’ climatic niches may be poorly predicted by regional climate estimates used in species distribution models (SDMs) due to microclimatic buffering of local conditions. Here, we compare SDMs generated using a locally validated below-canopy microclimate model to those based on interpolated weather station data at two spatial scales to determine the effects of scale, topography, and forest cover on potential future ground-level warming and species distributions. Location: Great Smoky Mountains National Park (2090 km2; NC, TN, USA) Time period: 1970 – 2006 Major taxa: Vascular plant species of the Southern Appalachians Methods: We compared the fit and predictions of SDMs generated using a database of plant occurrences and three climate models: macroclimate (1 km, WorldClim), fine-scale (30 m) interpolation of macroclimate with elevation, and fine-scale below-canopy microclimate from a ground-level sensor network. Results: We found that, although SDM fit was similar...