A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin