The future of tourism with the example of Ennstal

Diploma thesis from Touristic Management Liezen The preparation of future forecasts and their analysis is a real challenge for tourism experts. The longer the forecast period is, the more difficult the task becomes. The frame controls can change dramatically quickly. When tourism experts made forecasts for the turn of the millennium a few decades ago, no one could imagine that such profound events as the terrorist attack on the World Trade Center would or could happen. Such events have a serious impact on tourism. In order to be able to produce future forecasts, the experts try to develop different future scenarios and models using statistics from recent years and market research results. I used the books of the famous futurists Egon Smeral and Horst W. Opaschowski as a basis for information. After the development of tourism development, the forecasts for the coming years and the creation of some important future trends follow in the practical part interviews with people from the Ennstal. These people are all very closely connected with tourism. I asked you some questions to find out how they look forward to the future and whether or how they are preparing for the predicted trends. The last part of my work consists of a summary of the results from the interviews and my personal theories of the future.利岑旅游管理专业学士学位论文 对旅游行业从业者而言，未来旅游趋势预测与分析实为一项极具挑战性的工作：预测周期越长，任务难度便随之提升，行业运行框架亦可能出现剧烈且快速的更迭。数十年前，业内专家曾针对千禧年之交的旅游市场展开预测，彼时无人能够预料到世界贸易中心恐怖袭击这类影响深远的重大事件会真实发生，而此类事件对旅游业的冲击堪称严重。为保障未来趋势预测工作的顺利开展，专家们往往依托近年统计数据与市场调研结果，尝试构建多元未来场景与预测模型。 本研究以知名未来学家埃贡·斯梅拉尔（Egon Smeral）与霍斯特·W·奥帕肖夫斯基（Horst W. Opaschowski）的著作为信息来源基础。在梳理旅游业发展脉络、推导未来数年行业预测趋势并提炼若干关键未来发展方向后，实践部分将围绕恩斯塔尔（Ennstal）地区的从业者开展访谈——上述人员均与旅游业深度绑定。本研究通过设计相关问题，向他们了解对行业未来的展望，以及其是否、或如何针对预判的行业趋势开展筹备工作。 本研究的最后一部分为访谈结果汇总与笔者个人提出的未来发展理论构想。