Historical and future climate change fosters expansion of Australian harvester termites, Drepanotermes

Past evolutionary adaptations to Australia’s aridification can help us to understand potential responses of species in the face of global climate change. Here, we focus on the Australian-endemic termite genus Drepanotermes, which is widespread in semi-arid and arid regions of Australia. We used species delineation, phylogenetic inference, and ancestral state reconstruction to investigate the evolution of mound-building and in relation to reconstructed past climatic conditions. Our results suggest that mound-building evolved several times independently, apparently facilitating expansion into tropical and mesic regions of Australia. Strong phylogenetic signal of bioclimatic variables, especially of limiting environmental factors (e.g. precipitation of warmest quarter), indicates that climate exerts a strong selective pressure. Finally, we used environmental niche modeling to predict present and future habitat suitability for eight Drepanotermes species. Abiotic factors such as annual temp...