oscars.csv

Oscars data file, csv format: Every year since 1928, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has recognized outstanding achievement in film with their prestigious Academy Award, or Oscar. Before the winners in various categories are announced, there is intense media and public interest in predicting who will come away from the awards ceremony with an Oscar statuette. There are no end of theories about which nominees are most likely to win, yet despite this, there continue to be major surprises when the winners are announced. This article frames the question of predicting the four major awards - picture, director, actor in a leading role, actress in a leading role - as a discrete choice problem. It is then possible to predict the winners in these four categories with a reasonable degree of success. The analysis also reveals which past results might be considered truly surprising - nominees with low estimated probability of winning who have overcome nominees who were strongly favored to win奥斯卡数据集文件，格式为CSV（逗号分隔值）：自1928年起，美国电影艺术与科学学院便会通过其享誉全球的奥斯卡金像奖（Academy Award，即Oscar），表彰电影行业的杰出成就。在各奖项类别获奖者名单公布前，媒体与公众均对预测奥斯卡小金人（Oscar statuette）得主抱有极高的关注度。当下关于哪些提名者最有可能获奖的各类预测理论层出不穷，但即便如此，奖项揭晓时仍时常出现颠覆预期的重磅爆冷结果。本文将四大核心奖项——最佳影片、最佳导演、最佳男主角、最佳女主角——的预测问题建模为离散选择问题（discrete choice problem），据此可对上述四大奖项的得主进行预测，并取得较为可观的预测准确率。该分析同时还能识别出过往颁奖礼中真正意义上的爆冷结果：即那些预估获奖概率极低的提名者，最终击败了被普遍看好的热门候选人。