Efeitos potenciais da política tributária sobre o consumo de alimentos e insumos agropecuários: uma análise de equilíbrio geral inter-regional

This paper analyses the potentials long run effects on the Brazilian economy of two policies in the field of the indirect taxes: a) the reduction of indirect taxes on food consumption by the households and; b) the reduction of indirect taxes on the main inputs used in the agricultural activity. The analysis is accomplished through two simulation exercises using a static inter-regional applied general equilibrium model. The benchmark year is 2001. The results of both simulations are found to be similar, except in terms of magnitude: the most intense effects are associated to the reduction the taxation on foods. Both simulations show expansion in the level of economic activity in the poorest regions of the country and reduction in the richest. They also show a potential for improving the welfare of the low income classes in all regions, especially in the poorest: North and Northeast. The negative impact on the governments’ revenue is the main restriction to the implementation of these policies. Results also show that the effects of tax policies differ among regions, sometimes substantially, what strengthen the usefulness the interregional applied general equilibrium models for the analysis of tax policies impacts in Brazil.本文针对间接税领域两项政策对巴西经济的潜在长期影响展开分析：其一为降低家庭食品消费所需缴纳的间接税；其二为降低农业生产主要投入品对应的间接税。本研究借助两项模拟实验开展分析，所采用的模型为静态区域间应用一般均衡模型（Static Inter-Regional Applied General Equilibrium Model），基准年份为2001年。两项模拟的结果整体相似，仅在影响强度上存在差异：食品税减免政策引致的影响最为显著。两类模拟均显示，巴西所有区域的低收入群体福利均存在改善空间，其中以最贫困的北部与东北部区域尤为突出。政府税收收入受到的负面影响，是上述政策落地的主要制约因素。研究结果还表明，税收政策的影响在不同区域间存在显著差异，有时甚至相差悬殊，这进一步印证了区域间应用一般均衡模型在巴西税收政策影响分析中的应用价值。