FVA spreading under climate change

With the help of species distribution models, large-scale possible changes in the occurrence of the main tree species spruce, beech, oak and fir were estimated. For this purpose, correlations between the present occurrence of these species within Europe (Level 1 dataset) (Hanewinkel et al., 2010) and bioclimatic variables were determined. Using values of these bioclimatic variables, the future probability of occurrence of a species was estimated for the climate future scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 and the periods 2041-2061 and 2061-2080 (Hijmans et al., 2005).

借助物种分布模型（species distribution models），本研究估算了云杉、山毛榉、栎树与冷杉这四类主要乔木物种的适生分布范围所发生的大规模潜在变化。为此，研究人员首先明确了欧洲范围内上述物种当前的适生分布数据（一级数据集（Level 1 dataset），Hanewinkel等，2010）与生物气候变量之间的相关关系。基于上述生物气候变量的数值，针对典型浓度路径（Representative Concentration Pathways，简称RCP）4.5与RCP 8.5两种未来气候情景，以及2041-2061年、2061-2080年两个研究时段，研究人员估算了各物种未来的适生发生概率（Hijmans等，2005）。